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News

Interest in Politics

With the coming weekend, the last “registration weekend” before the general election, it is interesting to note that two-thirds of South Africans (68%) of voting age (18+) confirmed their interest in politics and elections. A quarter (26%) are “very interested” in politics and elections and a further 42% said that they were “somewhat interested”.¹

These results are from a study conducted by Ipsos Markinor. A total of 3 312 respondents, representative of adults of voting age (18+) in South Africa, were interviewed between 3 and 22 October 2008. Respondents were randomly selected to represent South Africa’s adult population and all population groups, provinces and types of settlements were included. Interviews were done face-to-face in the homes and language of choice of respondents. Results are weighted and projected to the universe – i.e. the potential voters in the country.

Past voting figures

However, this does not mean that only two-thirds of eligible South Africans (68%) will vote in the upcoming general election, as the actual number of eligible voters is a point of some debate in the country because of differing views with regard to the actual size of the population.

In 1994, more than 19 million South Africans voted in our first democratic election. Since 1999 voters had to pre-register to be able to cast their votes. Of the just over 18 million registered voters 87,9% voted in 1999, while 2004 had a poorer voter turnout when only 76,7% of registered voters actually voted.

On 4 February 2009, 21 706 365 South Africans were registered to vote for the 2009 election.

Interest in politics and elections

Looking only at the group of South Africans who are VERY INTERESTED in politics and elections, some interesting findings emerged:

• Men are more likely to fall into this group than women – and this became even more evident in the findings of the October 2008 survey. (See table overleaf.)
• However, currently more women (11 960 191) than men (9 746 174) are registered to vote, and in all national elections since 1999 more women than men actually voted.

• Younger people (younger than 25) are not uninterested in politics and elections; however, the registration figures for the 18 and 19-year-olds can certainly improve. The youth was an important catalyst in the 1994-elections and should play a big role in any election. (More than half of South Africans (51,4%) are younger than 25.) According to the IEC website only 417 362 eligible voters between the age of 18-19 years are registered to vote. Thus only a fifth of 18-19 year old South Africans are registered to vote!

South Africans who are very interested in politics and elections:

It seems as if it is more likely to be practical reasons influencing a lower voter registration amongst younger and/or first time voters than their lack of interest in politics. International studies have shown that, taking time out to physically go and register is more likely to occur amongst older groups, than young and especially first time voters. One has to also ask the question whether this group in particular feels more alienated from politics than their older counterparts.

Interest in politics and elections is not the only reason why people would go and vote. In South Africa voters must be registered, thus we ask respondents whether they are registered to vote and then ask to see their green, bar-coded ID books. We also ask them whether they are likely to vote and want to vote, introducing a qualitative element that voters can identify with into our questioning. This group is called “likely voters” and is most probably the group that will cast their votes in the next general election.

¹ – Refer also to the study done by the HSRC for the IEC, released earlier this week.

For more information contact:

Mari Harris
Director & Political Analyst:
Business Development and Public Affairs
Tel: 011 686 8458 / 082 380 3010
mari.harris@ipsos-markinor.co.za

Anneke Greyling
Political Analyst:
Tel: 021 680 9200 / 083 777 0161
anneke.greyling@ipsos-markinor.co.za

Stephano Radaelli
Project Manager:
Tel: 011 686 8431 / 072 117 1140
stephano.radaelli@ipsos-markinor.co.za